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In focus: Budget-2000 By Mitro Çela The State Budget for the year 2000 has also been christened in Parliament. The arithmetic numbers have now undergone a metamorphosis: they have the force of law! Of the year. Shall we start with jobs? When the socialists came to power, they said they would create 250,000 new jobs. In fact, to date, 100,000 jobs have been cut. Grass will grow over the cuts. It is a science in its own right. A difficult science, not easy to digest. For the Fathers of the Nation, who are also exhausted by the people's troubles, it would be better if, alongside the pseudo-science of calculating GDP and the percentage produced by these calculations for the budget deficit, there were also some simple arithmetic: the difference between the expenditure and revenue of Budget-2000. Subtraction gives a deficit of around 50 billion lekë, or one third of expenditure! Smuggling thrives on this figure. Corruption finds fertile ground here. Because it is not normal to be dazzled by a bare deficit figure of 4.5 percent when, two weeks earlier, the State Audit had uncovered billions of lekë in evasion involving customs, taxes and tenders. To refresh the memory of the Fathers of the Nation, who press the green buttons in Parliament as if they were playing billiards, we will mention some figures from the State Audit’s findings. In last year’s budget, 15 billion lekë went missing from customs and 12.4 billion lekë from tax evasion. Of the 34,000 new license plates issued by the Directorate of Vehicle Traffic, customs duty was paid for only 9,000 vehicles. The anti-smuggling unit seized goods worth 13.4 billion lekë. The goods were placed in the State Reserve. The Budget received only 130 million lekë from their sale. The rest ended up in the pockets of the economic mafia. In light of these figures, any comment on the credibility of the macroeconomic balances in Budget-2000 is worthless. The State Budget for the year 2000 was also baptized in Parliament. The arithmetic figures law! To discuss things after the Nation’s Fathers have pressed the green button is to pour water into a mortar! The most we can do is comment on the invisible part of the iceberg coded Budget-2000. Let us take the indicators in order, according to their importance. The Prime Minister says that in 2000, production will grow by 8 percent! That is quite something, considering the fact that in most European countries production growth is repeatedly lower than in Albania! Add to this the fact that production grew by 8 percent last year and this year too, and it gives rise to suspicion. Is this figure accurate, or is it cooked up by watching the IMF’s barometer? Formally, it would be more credible if there were some fluctuation from one year to the next. This hypothesis becomes more compelling when we make a comparison or two. The IMF publishes a bulletin every year with the economic indicators of 181 countries around the world. You will not find fixed production growth for three consecutive years even in countries that imitate the cowboys’ economy (a liberal economy), nor in countries that imitate the samurai’s economy (a social market economy)! After this reasoning about form, let us analyze the content. I think production growth leads to three outcomes: the creation of new jobs, an increase in exports, and a change in the balance between imports and exports. power, they said they would create 250 thousand new jobs. In fact, to date around 100 thousand jobs have been cut. The government pins responsibility for the cuts on ESAF-2! And what about next year? Not a single article of the Budget law mentions new jobs, apart from the dismissal of 6 thousand public administration employees. What about exports? Apart from the good news that America has granted Albania preferred trading status, nothing else is on the horizon. (While we’re on the subject! What will our country export to the USA to justify all this fanfare about this status? Aside from the political benefit, it is hard to see even a single dollar entering the trade balance. Without increased exports, imports will continue to drain ever more foreign currency!) The question about the exports that went into drawing up Budget-2000 remains unanswered: Where will this production growth show up? Some say that agricultural and livestock production will increase. But this is merely politicians’ fantasy, because in the market, domestic citrus fruits, fruit, olives, and vegetables have been displaced by imported produce! Smuggling, corruption, and tax policy have neither allowed nor will allow Albanian producers to rise above the deficit level—which, economically speaking, means competing with imported goods! And the budget deficit! 4.5 percent of GDP. Little, very little, if you look at this figure from Mount Olympus? But why should the comparison be made only with GDP? Clearly, so that government officials can rejoice and IMF experts can applaud! When GDP in Albania is calculated accurately, it will depend on our experts’ shoulders

[Illustration: figure speaking at a podium; text on the banknote illegible]

The State Budget for the year 2000 was also baptized in Parliament.

The war within the PS resumes P. 5 “Deloitte” has violated the law P. 6 The captain of “Santa Barbara” drowns P. 7 Tirana is presented with 138,874 inhabitants P. 11 The war within the PS resumes — P. 5; “Deloitte” has violated the law — P. 6; The captain of “Santa Barbara” drowns — P. 7; Tirana is presented with 138,874 inhabitants — P. 11