The departure of the international observers has paved the way for military intervention. Nevertheless, the consequences for Kosovo's political future may be more serious than the bombings themselves. If NATO strikes the Serbs to save Kosovo from a humanitarian catastrophe, it will undoubtedly deserve the hatred of the Albanian leadership. Signing independence would make a splash in any other country in Europe. However, in Kosovo the Albanians are accustomed to playing the role of the victim even more clearly. Milosevic's indirect aims in encouraging the Serbian paramilitaries and police, to watch the spread of refugees to the neighbours, and such a development. According to NATO's calculations, the last armed resistance will lose out, mainly because it will not support the uprising with desperate advocates. The peace process is ultimately being split at Kosovo's very smile, and the result will be the loss of Kosovo's last ties with the West. Before anything is decided, because it will be the main loser. Kosovo's independence is promised after three years. NATO appears ready to reduce in relative terms, hoping that the countries of the region will refuse to become a haven for Albanian refugees, isolating them further. As long as Albanians are identified with the symbol of resistance, any compromise reached with the West risks provoking popular anger. This also greatly underestimates the logic of war. Even if the bombings succeed, the political consequences may be such that finding a lasting solution becomes even more difficult. In Kosovo, as is clear, actions cannot be avoided. People will flee their homes, but will remain dependent on others. This does not mean that the West should stand idly by; on the contrary, it must understand that by trying to save the military end through a peaceful peace, the outcome may be just as bad as war.

Anti-smuggling On page 9

Tragedy On page 19

Christopher BENNETT

For technical reasons, the draw scheduled for 22 March will be postponed to 29 March 1999. The competing numbers continue tomorrow and throughout the week in the GH series